Forecasting

Meteorologists are notorious for the quality of their forecasts. It's no easy thing to forecast a system as complicated and complex as the weather and sometimes we even get the forecasts correct. Since 1884, there have been many studies on how to quantify the skill and value of weather forecasts (perhaps more than in any other subject area). The links below give some more information on this important aspect of meteorological research. If you have any questions or comments then please contact us.

Reality check

• Some humorous quotations about forecasting

Royal Met Society: Quality of Weather Forecasts Project 2005

• How do forecast providers and users assess the quality of weather forecast products?
  Information about an exciting new user-oriented verification project.

Books

• I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson (Editors), "Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science", Wiley and Sons (2003).
• David B. Stephenson's "Glossary of Forecast Verification Terms"
• Table of Contents for the book (in pdf format)
• limited access author information

Recent articles

• Goeber, M., C.A. Wilson, S.F. Milton, D.B. Stephenson, 2004: Fairplay in the verification of operational quantitative precipitation forecasts, J. Hydrology, 288, 225-236.
• Casati, B., G. Ross, and D.B. Stephenson, 2004: A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts, Met. Applications, 11, 141-154.
• Jolliffe, I.T. and D.B. Stephenson 2003: "Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science" (Editors), Wiley and Sons, 240 pp.
• Thornes, J.E. and D.B. Stephenson 2001: How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products, Meteorological Applications, 8, 307-314.
• Stephenson, D.B. 2000: Use of the "odds ratio" for diagnosing forecast skill, Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 15, No. 2, 221-232.

Verification sites

• Elizabeth E. Ebert's web site on forecast verification
• Harold Brooks' weather forecast verification pages

... plus more things to be added soon.